Loading...

I tend to look at the monthly forecasts as far as the seasonal forecasts. But let's take a look over here, just because the seasonal forecasts are sometimes skewed. It's going to be a normal winter, right? Half of the winter is freezing, the other half is above average, and then of course everything evens out nicely. So right now they're saying the period, so this is from Environment Canada for Canada October, November, December, so this is a 3 month period. They're basically saying 83% chance Eastern Canada, all of Eastern Canada is above normal. That's everywhere from Windsor through Newfoundland, north right to alert. And then if you use Ontario as the border, the Ontario-Manitoba border, you drew a line there, it begins to diminish there. It goes from about 77% through most of Manitoba down to 60-55% through Saskatchewan, Alberta's about 50%, bordering on 48% and then BC's 46%. Now what gets tricky is that there's a skill that the model puts on it where they assign a value where it's medium, low, etc. What that means is that there's both uncertainty and significant variability within it. Let me cycle it.